오늘 아침 개장 전, 위험이 가득한 뉴스가 돌았다. 세계적인 신용평가사인 무디스가 한국의 국가 신용등급을 낮출지도 모른다는 보도가 그것이다. 결과적으로는 아침 10시 45분 로이터 발 기사로 이 내용이 사실 무근임이 밝혀졌지만, 다시 한번 이와 관련한 기사가 떴다.
국가 신용등급이 아닌 한국의 은행들에 대한 전망이지만, 강만수 장관의 공격적인 외환시장 개입에 대해서도 일침을 가하는 내용이다.
은행들이 상반기 중 조달금리의 급등으로 장기 채권 발행을 하반기 이후로 미뤘지만, 시장은 더욱 악화되어 장기 채권 발행은 더더욱 어려워졌다. 늦게라도 발행을 해서 국내 대출 수요를 충당해야 하는데 단기 채권 발행과 만기 연장 등 "임시방편"으로만 해법을 모색하고 있기에 더더욱 문제가 된다는 것이다.
또한, 은행 외채의 만기 연장을 강만수 장관이 어떻게든 지원할 것이라는 예상이 절대 불가능한 것이 아니기에 이러한 위협은 지속될 수 밖에 없는 것이다.
물론 톰 번 국가신용등급 담당 부사장은 아침 10시 45분에 "현재로서는 한국의 신용등급을 변경할 계획이 없으며 신용등급을 하향조정한다는 소문에 대해서도 들어본 적 없다"고 발표함으로써 금융시장의 2차 쇼크를 방지하긴 했지만, 신용등급 하락의 위험성은 여전히 높다고 보는게 맞을 것 같다.
아래는 무디스의 comment 전문이다.
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Korea has more negative rating outlooks on its banks than any other system in Asia, primarily due to its dependence on the stricken international capital and money markets for funding. Our industry outlook for the system is also negative, a characteristic it shares with many other regional banking systems.
Korea is one of the few banking systems in Asia where domestic deposits are insufficient to fund loans; loan to deposit ratios range from 130% to over 300%. Therefore, the country’s banks must rely on the wholesale funding markets for about 44% of their funding and are still reliant on the international markets for 10-12%.
Reluctant to pay the much higher borrowing spread over past year, most banks delayed issuing long-term cross-border debt, expecting conditions to normalize in 2H2008. As we now know, market conditions got worse instead. But the banks continue to refinance in the short-term debt markets.
On October 13, Kang Man-Soo, Minister of Strategy and Finance, told reporters, “We will fully support banks to roll over their debts with foreign exchange reserves, lest they default.” Moody’s also considers Korea to be a high support system, which would -- if it were necessary -- assist the banks in meeting their obligations. Furthermore, the government has over $240bn of foreign currency reserves with which to back up this promise.
The domestic funding market has shown less stress than before, but prices continue to rise. At the same time, deposits are rising as funds return from broker cash management accounts now that equity investments are less attractive. Banks have been able to increase their issuance in the long-term won debenture market. As yet there has not been any need for the Bank of Korea to expand repo-able assets to help banks fund in local currency, so they have not done so. But we believe it would, if necessary.
Barring liquidity, bank fundamental in Korea are good. The average BFSR is C- , and the average deposit rating is single-A, both about average globally. As for most of the rest of Asia, we have a negative banking industry outlook for Korea, reflecting the more difficult operating environment the banks are facing as the global economy slows.
For example, net interest margins are already under pressure from competition and higher funding costs. While the former may slacken, the latter could linger. NPLs will inevitably rise. Losses from sub-prime-related assets and failed banks have been managed within earnings. Reparations on KIKO sales, should they be required, are unlikely to exceed earnings, particularly if they are shared with purchasers.
Despite our concerns, Korean banks will face the deteriorating global economy with unimpaired capital (Tier 1 averages 8.75%) NPLs at a cyclical low of less than 1% of gross loans.
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제발, 조용히 넘어갔으면 좋겠다. 그리고 외환시장은 시장 자율에 맡기고. 괜히 끼어듦으로 해서 외국인 투자자들의 불신만 높이지 않기를.
